Friday, February 26, 2016

Justin Wolfers' Interesting Article on Bernie Sanders' Economic Plan

There has been considerable conversations over Bernie Sanders' economic plan over the internet and among several top macroeconomists in the United States. Among the economists that are talking about Professor Gerald Friedman's plan that has estimated a Sanders Presidency would greatly improve the economy of the United States with its plan of completely transforming the country into one that more or less resembles that of the Nordic social democratic societies. As my father is on the faculty at one of the University of Massachusetts schools, it's interesting to consider Professor Friedman's analysis of the Sanders economic plan. I personally think that the universal healthcare program that he has promoted is while valid, it might not be the plan of action. The Nordic welfare states (Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark) were created earlier on in the century and had promoted a decent foundation for their societies as a whole to function on a very high level. They were created when these states did not have any nationalized program of any sort or extremely complex healthcare systems. They were relatively small and homogeneous at that period of time. My main problem with Sanders' plan is that it does not go into detail about how and where the healthcare system will change. Also, there seems to somewhat of a disagreement between how mainstream economists and how Professor Friedman sees the topic of macroeconomics as a whole. We will explore this later on this blog post, but let's first talk about Wolfers' point of view.

Let's first look at what Wolfers and the Romers have to offer for the conversation over Sanders' economic plan. The Wolfers article goes into a recent short article of what Professor David and Christina Romer have written and explains that Friedman's plan is out of whack based on their point of view. I must admit that it is completely feasible for a bunch of center-left Democratic star economists, which include Paul Krugman, to fully denounce what someone from a (more-or-less) a Post-Keynesian perspective would have. They all focused on the demand-induced part of Sanders' plan. They find it incredulous that the plan would be in Wolfers' words, "an economic nirvana". I have read and looked over Professor Friedman's plan and it does not look incredibly implausible, especially when you look at the CBO estimates or in its calculations. Maybe it is somewhat different than what most center-left macroeconomists such as Wolfers would consider to be credible. If you read towards the end of his short article, Justin Wolfers pointed out that Gerald Friedman's long and careful analysis as one that is more or less the perspective of the Post-Keynesian macroeconomists from the tradition of Joan Robinson. Let's look into this historical phenomenon where generally liberal economists divulge tremendously.

If you look back into history, John Maynard Keynes truly changed the way many in the economics arena had seen economics. He argued that the mainstream neo-classical models mostly in the field of macroeconomics to be mostly wrong and his particular analysis of how the world of economics works to be right. Of course this does not come with its controversy in the world of economics as many traditional neoclassical economists did not view his completely "heretical views" very well. Then fast-forward 10 years, two top MIT economists, Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow, created a somewhat combination of Keynes' works with the earlier neoclassical economists into somewhat of a paradigm shift between the two competing schools of economic thought into the neo-classical synthesis. This is when Joan Robinson and others at the Department of Economics in Cambridge, of which Keynes last taught before his death, argued in the Cambridge capital controversy about certain components of their competing ideologies especially about the unrealistic assumptions component to their mathematical models. The Post-Keynesian school, of which Joan Robinson is famous for, argued based primarily on the Keynesian tradition, while the other somewhat Keynesian argued based on a moderate fusion of the two competing schools. This led to a long ideological battle that has also included an entire generation of economists in the "new classical tradition" that in Robert Lucas wanted to "bury Keynesianism" and also attacked the earlier mentioned unrealistic assumptions part in their math modeling. The Wolfers' article and Krugman's numerous articles explain this battle, but it is generally between the dominant faction of Keynesians and those like Friedman, which are in the more left-leaning Robinson faction of the Keynesians.

While I don't necessarily agree completely with Friedman's observations on Sanders' economic plan for the country, Professor Gerald Friedman and Bernie Sanders' economic plan is especially important in that it's exposing the general public to more of Keynes' economic thoughts. While Keynesianism might not be the solution to some of problems in the models that some in the New Classical school of thought ran into during the Great Recession, it should form the basis in any academic and policy discussion to correcting the country's trajectory towards an entrenched oligarchy and a mass of working poor.

1 comment:

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