Thursday, January 22, 2015

Beginning of escalation of a currency war between Europe and the rest of the world?

The European Central Bank's upcoming quantitative easing plans has been headline business news for the last couple of days, but today the ECB has finally announced the measures that they will pursue in the coming months. has decided to pursue very aggressive easing policies that will surely affect the markets for the coming years. In pursuing an aggressive bond repurchasing program of upwards of 60 million euros per month, the ECB hopes to curb deflation that has hit the European Union's economy. In the introduction statement to the press conference, the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, has decided to explain these particular measures. Draghi mentioned that the ECB wants this process to continue until they can reach the benchmark inflation rate of 2% in the European Union and that these measures will continue until the end of 2016. To fully understand the full consequences of this program, we can relay to my last article where I had mentioned the massive expansion of the Chinese M2 money supply. I think it will create a tsunami flood of cheap money that will flood the markets, which will further decrease the value of the euro versus other major currencies. Here are several charts that feature euro versus the two other major currencies.

Euro to US Dollar














Euro to Chinese Yuan

As we can see from this chart, the euro has fallen tremendously in the last year or so, from various other factors such as a weak European economy. The bond repurchasing program might have an interesting effect on its currency competitors. It might led to similar actions by the United States, by China, by the United Kingdom and other major central banks in order to promote export/import competitiveness. The start of Abenomics in Japan and this move by the European Central Bank has led to talk of more quantitative easing and more currency devaluations. I believe that the currency wars have just started between the major nations, while it will also lead to more people placing their assets into safe havens such as Switzerland. The Swiss might think twice about de-pegging their currency once again against these devalued major currencies...

(Here's a good and short summary article on the history of recent Swiss monetary history.)

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